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"The neighbours want influence. Only the people of Syria have an interest in democracy"

How did the Assad regime fall, what is the hope for the future of Syria, what does the Israeli response teach and what should the Israelis understand? An interview with the human rights activist from the [Israeli controlled – LS] Golan [Heights – LS] Dr. Nizar Ayoub and Dr. Ori Goldberg.

By Maayan Galili

Editor Anat Zalzberg

Translation using Google Translate with minor edits by Lior Suchoy

Date of original publication: 12/12/2024

Original Hebrew text: https://www.rosamedia.org/episodes/articles/61

"The neighbouring countries, the [regional and global – LS] powers, have no interest in Syria being free and democratic. It is more important for them to preserve their influence - including Turkey, including Iran, including Israel, including Russia, including the United States. Who has an interest in a free and democratic Syria? Only the Syrian people. A democratic Syria may endanger the dictatorial regimes in the entire Middle East". This is how Dr. Nizar Ayoub, an expert in international law and human rights activist from [the Israeli-controlled village of – LS] Majdal Shams, who works for the human rights organisation "Al-Marsad " operating in the Golan Heights [see comment below – LS], described the situation in Syria.

Ayoub believes that the fall of the Assad regime is good news for the Syrians and for the human rights situation in Syria. The Druze population in the Golan, which is under Israeli control, also rejoiced at the fall of the regime. However, Ayoub fears the direction that Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the organisation that led the final attack on the Assad regime and appears to be taking power in Damascus, will choose, and its treatment of minorities, including the Druze in the Syrian Golan. According to Ayoub, "There is no one who will guarantee that Abu Mohammad al-Julani (the leader of HTS – MG), who is now demonstrating leadership, is capable of, or interested in, establishing a democratic government that will give all Syrians a place as partners in government. He was in Al Qaeda and ISIS, even if later he began to restrain himself more. If he leads to a democratic and free Syria, most Syrians, and most of the world, will be surprised." The fall of the Assad regime also surprised Ayoub, but according to him, the surprise is also typical. "Many times, dictatorships are weak. Even if they are strong on the surface, they can fall apart very quickly."

Ayoub emphasises that despite the sectarian tensions in Syria, the Syrians are not interested in the dissolution of the state. "The Syrian people will never accept the disintegration of Syria. The French tried to do that, to disintegrate Syria into a Kurdish state, an Alawite state and a Druze state. It will not work, maybe only de facto for a short period of time, like [the state of Syria – LS] now during the war. But if Syria is divided, it will bring chaos to the entire Middle East - this will endanger the security of all the countries in the region, some in the short term and some in the long term, including Israel." The question of unity in Syria is especially acute, with the HTS victory on the southern front, while the Kurdish-led SDF alliance continues to hold large parts of northern Syria. The struggle between the organisations is closely related to the ambition of Turkey, which supports HTS, to weaken the Kurdish forces, with whom they are fighting inside Turkey. In recent days, HTS has been fighting with SDF in areas that the alliance has controlled until now.

Dr. Ori Goldberg, an expert on Iran and Shia Islam, also agrees that Syrian national sentiment may actually bring hope for a better future in the country. “My hope is that al-Julani will control Syria as a Syrian [national – LS] who wants to [develop – LS] Syria [as a whole – LS], and not to [wage – LS] war with Israel or Lebanon, not spreading Radical Islam, not doing Erdoğan's [i.e. the Turkish president – LS] bidding." According to Goldberg, in the Western media al-Julani is presented as doing Erdoğan's word and as a jihadist, but that [description – LS] may not be justified. "HTS are certainly not ISIS and Al Qaeda. They are a Syrian force. There is certainly Turkish involvement there, but they don't really fit any category. Their rhetoric is Islamic, but they severed ties with Al Qaeda and ISIS years ago. This does not mean that al-Julani is a liberal, God forbid, but who said that the [only – LS] options are liberal or jihadist”.

Viewed from Israel, the image of al-Julani does appear in a very binary manner in the media. [This is – LS] mainly due to the tendency to judge every figure in the Arab region according to their ties to Iran or Israel. Goldberg, on the other hand, emphasises his Syrian identity. "Some people try to present his victory as the end of Arab nationalism. But he himself talks a lot about how Syrian he is. His militia is not an ISIS[-like – LS] militia or [a militia fuelled by – LS] foreign [interests – LS] - but a Syrian militia, from Syria. And he is also welcomed [by Syrians – LS] because he succeeds in immediately bringing benefits to the areas he conquered - for example, twice as many hours of electricity." In simple words - even if al-Julani is an enigmatic figure in the eyes of the West and Israel, in Syrian eyes [his – LS] image is clearer.

Goldberg also believes that the fall of the Assad regime is liberating for the Syrians, even if the future is unclear, and the rebels are not perfect. "People say: How can it be liberation if a jihadist frees you? Assad is one of the worst mass murderers in the history of the world. He not only murdered [the Syrians], he tortured [them – LS], as can be seen from the images that coming out now from Sednaya Prison". The rebels freed lots of political prisoners from the infamous prison, and the sights from it recall the horrible scenes from the beginning of the civil war in Syria.

"When Assad finished murdering [the Syrians – LS], he turned to crime - his regime was [financially – LS] based on a crazy narcotics network. The Assad family headed a production system for the stimulant drug Captagon. More and more of the country's economy was enslaved to drugs. The [global – LS] market for Captagon, which is mainly produced today in Syria, is worth 10 billion dollars, while Syria’s DGP is worth 9 billion dollars. [The Syrian state was – LS] a fictional state, with an army that collapsed like nothing - by the way, this fictional army was, for years, Israel’s "reference threat" (i.e. the main threat against which the Israeli army was prepared – MG). To be a Syrian was to be a person who could be kidnapped from the street and put in an underground prison for years. If al-Julani overthrows the people who did these [crimes – LS], he is surely a liberator".

"The collapse of the Assad regime - an embarrassment to Israel"

Goldberg and Ayoub emphasised that foreign countries are working to increase their influence in Syria. In contrast, reports from the days before and after the fall of the regime in Damascus, indicate that the Iranian government made a conscious decision not to intervene in [Assad’s – LS] favour. Why did Iran, a longtime ally of the Assad regime, allow it to fall? According to Goldberg, these affairs put the common perception of the relations between the different parts of the "axis of resistance" in a ridiculous light. "This image that is here, of an axis with a solid ideological basis that aims to destroy Israel - has never existed. Iran, Syria, Russia to a certain extent - are enemies of Israel. [They – LS] cooperated when it suited them, and when it didn't suit them - they cut losses and ran. We were told that the Axis is an alliance like the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War. This is nonsense. The Axis is a loose system of cooperations which depend on context and interest and is full of contradictions and inconsistencies. Israel emphasised the [unified image – LS] of the Axis in order to position itself at the front line of a regional war with some hopeless enemy. The fact that the Axis folded like it did is mainly an embarrassment for Israel".

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has occupied the buffer zone between Israel and Syria and the Syrian Hermon [see comments below – LS]. Various media outlets have published reports of further Israeli advances in Syrian territories beyond. According to Prime Minister Netanyahu, this is only a temporary occupation, time will tell if it is temporary like the other forms of Israeli occupation. In addition, the air force bombed military targets throughout Syria, and according to reports in the Israeli media, eliminated "80% of the capabilities of the Syrian army". According to Goldberg, this reaction indicates Israel's weakness and its lack of strategic thinking.

"When the civil war in Syria started, Israel had to decide what efforts it was making and for whose benefit. We tried to dance at all the weddings, including talking to HTS, but we didn't use this opportunity to topple the Assad regime - as mentioned, the leader of the country that was our reference threat. Think how ridiculous is what we are doing now. Bombing the research centre of the Assad army? We are winning the previous war! Assad is gone, but now we are defeating him. When we could have overthrown him we chose not to do so, for our own reasons, but when he fell - 'we’ve overthrown Assad'. as if.".

"Israel is now operating in Syria the same way it operated in Lebanon - we have a stockpile of targets and we are attacking them. The government and its leadership do not necessarily have a plan to establish settlements or take over territories permanently. We may want to steal some territory, in a small way, but we mainly want to show the international community that we are pissing on it. Israel does not necessarily want occupation and war, but it constantly wants the possibility and potential to push its boundaries [figuratively; see comment below – LS]. There are many people in the world who think that Israel wants to conquer The Middle East - I don't think it's true, but the consequences of our actions are that people see us as a rogue state. We behave like a snake that bites its tail. This is how we started [the war – LS] in Gaza, before it became an epidemic of destruction and genocide, because the Palestinians are the ones closest to us and because they hit us hard on October 7th. But this is ultimately the same form of action on a higher volume of".

What can we learn from the collapse of the Assad regime?

Ayoub does believe that Israel is taking advantage of the new situation to now carry out a plan for expansion and occupation in the Golan. However, he also emphasises that "despite 54 years of living under the Israeli occupation, and dealing with land expropriation and with a constant attempt to divide and rule them, the Druze in the Golan believe in peace between all the countries that exist in the region, including between Israel and Syria." Ayoub also emphasises that Israel should listen to these aspirations, and thus learn from the fall of the Assad regime: "I think that dictatorships, occupation, apartheid, inequality - they are not permanently durable. Israel is in a very difficult moral and political situation, when most international organisations claim that it is committing apartheid, and even ethnic cleansing and genocide. [Israel – LS] will have to decide what it wants, whether through two states or one state - to remain an apartheid state or end the occupation. If Israel takes advantage of the momentum to bring Syria into chaos, to divide Syria into zones of influence - in the end, it will backfire on Israel, as happened in the past in Lebanon and Gaza."

Goldberg concludes: "Israel, like Syria, is also a small and extreme state, with bad governance that is increasingly in the hands of militias. Israelis need to understand the connection between the actions of the state and the disintegration of Israeli society. Behind the unity and deep consensus on Netanyahu's eternal war, society in Israel is disintegrating. Just as the Assad regime disintegrated as it continued to pretend to be a state, while its empire of torture, murder and drugs grew, and the gap between perception and reality grew until it collapsed like a house of cards. We need to understand the connection between what we are doing in Gaza and the internal disintegration of the [Israeli – LS] society. What we have to learn from the fall of the Assad regime, between you and me, is to stop killing”.

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